A Numbers Game
So — just how many guys are girls talking to on dating apps? Molly deep dives into the issue.
Q. How many men are girls typically talking to before they give out their phone number or plan a date? I feel like so many of my conversations on dating apps go no where.
Ryan, 27, Boston, MA
A. Great question, Ryan. Some version of this query frequently appears in the IRL Advice inbox — basically, what you (and many others) are asking is the following: what is my competition like, numbers-wise, and what are the chances of me having a conversation that actually goes somewhere?
(By the way, if you have a question, send it our way! We read them all.)
Here’s the basic breakdown: there is no average number of people women converse with before giving out their phone number or planning a date, so you should behave as if you’re the only person she’s talking to.
Most people give out their phone number after their fourth or fifth conversation on Hinge. After that first conversation in which phone numbers are exchanged, Members exchange phone numbers every two to three conversations. As far as gender breakdowns, men give out their phone number 57 percent of the time; women, 43 percent of the time.
I know this is not the answer you’re looking for, but it’s the truth. The number of conversations men and women have varies greatly based on the amount of time they’ve had the app, the number of likes received each day, and their total number of connections.
Most people give out their phone number after their fourth or fifth conversation on Hinge
That being said, I can provide you with some rather fascinating data on how people who have connected typically behave, based on the factors listed above.
First of all, behaviors surrounding likelihood of a phone number exchange are not gender-dependent. This means a man will (for the most part) behave in the same way a women will.
Say there are two Hinge users — Susie and Mark. If Susie puts a like on Mark, and Mark then starts a conversation with Susie, there is a 43 percent chance she will respond if he is her first connection.
If that turns into a full conversation (both parties send a message), there is a 17 percent chance Susie will give Mark her phone number.
Now let’s add in some additional variables.
Let’s say Susie and Mark connect, but this time, this is Mark’s first connection. If Susie starts a conversation with Mark and he responds, Mark will give his number to Susie 18 percent of the time.
(Remember, you can swap the genders in any of these scenarios — behaviors are, for the most part, not gender-dependent.)
Now let’s say Susie likes Mark, but that same day, Lauren also likes Mark. If Lauren starts a conversation with Mark, he will give her his number 15 percent of the time. That represents a 22 percent decrease.
We can attribute this decrease to what I call “first connection excitement.” Basically, the fewer connections a person has, the more excited they will be to get a connection, and the more likely they will be to respond and give out their phone number.
How can you turn this information into real, live dates? Simple: first, start your conversations as soon as possible after connecting. If you start a conversation within the first hour, there is a 68 percent chance you’ll get a response. Between ten and 30 hours after connecting, that numbers drops to 55 percent.
Second, try to maintain three or more conversations at once if possible. Not focusing on one person gives you the best chance at exchanging numbers with someone, and eventually planning a date.*
*May 2017 Hinge data analysis
Molly Fedick is the Editor-in-Chief of IRL. She has written extensively on the role of technology in modern dating for publications including Glamour, NBC, the Chicago Tribune, Elite Daily, and Huffington Post. You can follow her on Twitter and Instagram @mylifeasmolly. Send Molly questions at firstname.lastname@example.org.